When I left my post. Yeltsin's resignation: a courageous act or a belated step

The forecasts of Western analysts that Russia will face political unrest and even a possible change of power in the wake of the economic crisis are based on erroneous premises.

And although to the West Russia “may seem like a democratic country” with an elected parliament and opposition, this is “just an appearance” that Putin successfully uses as a cover, tightly maintaining power with the help of the special services, the author emphasizes.

There is currently quite a serious discussion going on in the Western media, among politicians and in scientific circles.

Moreover, most often the general concept of these forecasts is that a sharp drop in oil prices, coupled with Western economic sanctions, will provoke economic and social unrest in Russia, which will seriously threaten the power of President Vladimir Putin.

However, in reality, “Putin’s Russia” is much more stable than it appears from the outside, and serious unrest is unlikely, writes Stephen Hall in an article for Stratfor. In order to be able to give an accurate assessment of the prospects for “destabilization,” it is necessary to abandon Western prejudices and, first of all, look at the world and Russia itself from the perspective of Russians, the article recommends.

Of course, for some it is “quite tempting and even pleasant” to predict that “the beginning of the end of Putin” will soon come, the author notes. Arguments in defense of this concept usually include recent protests by Russian truckers against increasing tolls, harsh anti-Putin rhetoric from Russian opposition bloggers, and even the open investigation into the murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. Some analysts claim that all this proves “increasing instability in Russia” and speaks of a gradual deterioration of the situation, which will inevitably lead to political changes.

However, all such theories have one common drawback, Stratfor emphasizes: their supporters analyze Putin, the Kremlin and events in the Russian political arena “from an overly Western perspective,” forgetting that purely Western premises and hypotheses are not applicable in relation to Russia.

In reality, Putin's power in Russia and his authority among Russians remain consistently strong, despite circumstances that could end the political careers of most Western leaders, and serious destabilization of the situation is unlikely, the author believes. He also believes that for more accurate forecasts it is necessary to abandon the “purely Western view” and “erroneous premises,” the first of which is that the Russian president supposedly really cares about what the Russian people do and think.

Unlike Western democracies, Putin's power "does not emanate from the people he rules" and he relies confidently on the coercive methods of the KGB in his leadership of the country, writes Stratfor: "Current and former representatives of what in Russia are called the intelligence services consider themselves Chekists, that is, the direct heirs of the Cheka - the secret police created by Lenin. This mentality implies the use of harsh coercive measures against one’s own population if the need arises. Both Putin and the Russian people understand this, and this relieves Putin of the need to demonstrate concern about the popular unrest that began in connection with rising prices for food and other goods.”

From the first typical “misconception” of Western analysts, the author believes, their second mistake follows: that Putin is worried about how Russians express their dissatisfaction in the form of demonstrations and protests, and that these manifestations of discontent influence his decisions. Western commentators and reporters call any protests “harbingers of change” or “barometers of discontent,” but it should not be forgotten that in Russia protests are “extremely monitored” by security services who “do a huge job of monitoring, infiltrating and collecting information about them.” organizers for later use,” Stratfor assures.

According to the author, in fact, Putin is well aware that any protests in Russia are unlikely to reach such a scale that they could escape the control of the security forces, and he deliberately allows citizens to protest in order to “create the appearance of democracy in Russia.” Thanks to this, Russia from the outside appears to be a country where opposition forces are allowed to freely express themselves, and this plays into the hands of the Kremlin when communicating with international structures such as the UN, the European Union, and so on, the article says.

The third “false assumption” of Western observers is that they believe that if economic conditions in Russia continue to deteriorate, dissatisfaction with the authorities and unrest will reach alarming levels. But analysts forget that the majority of Russians view deficits quite differently from those in the West, the author emphasizes: “Russians are proud of the fact that they have to suffer (a rather interesting trait that is also characteristic of other Slavic cultures, but almost not represented among other peoples)". And when the government announces that external Western forces are to blame for Russia’s economic difficulties, then the need to endure and put up with deficits turns for Russians “virtually into a national sport and a reason for national pride” and becomes another way for them to resist the “anti-Russian”, with the Kremlin's point of view, the international community, writes Stratfor.

Many analysts in the West believe that when the economic situation in Russia gets bad enough, Putin's popularity will plummet, no matter how much Russians like him now. However, the fallacy of this statement is “obvious from the very beginning”, since it is based on the flawed premise that Putin cares about his popularity in a political sense. It is possible that the Russian leader receives some personal pleasure from high ratings, but this is unlikely to seriously influence his political decisions, the article emphasizes.

And even if the level of his popularity decreases noticeably, Putin will retain power with the help of the special services and will use all the tools of intimidation and coercion to suppress opposition forces, Stratfor assures: “Proof of this can be the prosecution of members of the female punk group Pussy Riot and the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya." In addition, the majority of Russians are ready “in the name of stability” to easily sacrifice what Westerners consider their inalienable democratic rights, even if this results in a shortage and restriction of freedom, the author is sure: “Many Russians consider Putin the first strong leader of the post-Soviet era, therefore his popularity is unlikely to suffer much in any scenario.”

As Stratfor believes, the real downfall for Putin’s power may not be the threat of “popular unrest,” but the desire to remove him from “disgruntled Russian oligarchs” or attempts by the intelligence services to take power into their own hands. Undoubtedly, the Kremlin owner himself is well aware of this and is taking “preventive measures,” the article says: for example, Putin “cruelly punished” the influential oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who made the fatal mistake of “challenging him in the political sphere.” According to the author, the current Russian oligarchs are well aware that they will face the same harsh fate if they oppose the Kremlin, and “even exile is not a guarantee of complete security,” since “a large number of murders of famous Russians” have been committed abroad, including Alexandra Litvinenko.

In addition, Putin has likely learned a lesson from the attempted coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991 and is deliberately “harshly separating his relations with the oligarchs and his close ties with the security forces” to prevent dissent from uniting against him, Stratfor writes. Moreover, both sides understand: both the Kremlin and the oligarchs “will prosper” provided that the existing order is maintained, which minimizes the likelihood of any attempts to change the “political status quo” in Russia, the article says.

The West’s tendency to project its own values and reasoning onto the Russian system, within which Western thinking simply does not work, makes it difficult to sensibly assess the prospects for instability in Putin’s Russia - while the Kremlin is well aware of this “strange feature” of the Western worldview and actively exploits it. the author warns. Putin publicly and forcefully declares that Russia is a democracy with elections, parliament, laws, and even protests against the current government, misleading Western leaders and observers. As a result, they begin to make erroneous assumptions, overlooking the fact that “neither Putin nor the Russian people will ever behave in accordance with this statement,” Stratfor emphasizes.

According to the author, the best way to evaluate the Kremlin's plans and intentions is to view them solely in terms of "pragmatic" politics: "Putin will always act in accordance with his personal interests first, and only then in accordance with what he believes interests of Russia." And while at first glance Putin may appear Western-oriented, and Russia “may appear to be a democratic country” with a parliament and occasional protests, this is “merely an appearance,” Stratfor concludes: “To give an accurate assessment of the prospects for destabilization of the situation in Russia needs first of all to look at the world - and, more importantly, at Russia itself - from the perspective of Russians.”

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Vladimir Putin will retire from the presidency early during his 4th presidential term.

This information was provided by a FederalPress source in the Kremlin.

The presidential administration is preparing for this scenario.

Back in 2016, the highest echelons of power proposed the candidacy of Dmitry Medvedev as Putin’s successor, but the corruption scandal initiated by Alexei Navalny mixed up all the cards for the political elite. After the presidential elections, Kremlin technocrats will have to “promote” a new candidate in a short time.

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Russians clearly remember the phrase that ended Boris Yeltsin's presidency. In a few years it may become relevant again.

According to FederalPress sources in the Kremlin, 2-3 years after winning the presidential elections in 2018, Putin will announce the early termination of his powers. This is one of the main scenarios being considered by the Presidential Administration. “Vladimir Putin goes to the polls and wins. A little later, early elections are announced. He simply physically will not survive until the end of the next term. This is one of the main options for the development of events. The transition period begins now,” this statement was made by the interlocutor of FederalPress. .

The reason is age: The Russian Constitution does not contain such restrictions, but if elected for a 4th term, Putin will take the oath at 65 years old, and by the end of his term he will already be 71 years old.

Abbas Gallyamov believes that in this case it is better for Putin not to go to the elections at all, but to choose a successor now.

However, some experts consider it possible for Vladimir Putin to leave early after winning the 2018 elections. This point of view is also supported by political strategist Dmitry Fetisov. He believes that such a decision will be greatly influenced by the foreign policy situation.

FederalPress sources explain the possibility of such a scenario, citing not only the physical condition of the Russian President and his fatigue. There is no clear idea in the Kremlin about a successor. “For so many years in power, Putin has assumed enormous personal responsibility for Russia.

Therefore, he also bears responsibility for choosing a future successor. Without a worthy successor, he cannot simply step up and resign from the post of president,” Fetisov clarified. A year ago, Dmitry Medvedev, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, was a candidate for the post of president. After all, Putin will trust him very much.

The “castling” of the country’s two top officials would have happened again if not for the corruption scandal. “Medvedev is not the best option. And the problem is not in Navalny’s film. Society has already demonstrated once that it does not like such a “castling.” And if Dmitry Medvedev is again presented to the population of the country as a successor, it may flare up stronger than at Bolotnaya,” — says political scientist Abbas Gallyamov.

The conclusion is that the Kremlin is trying to buy time. In the coming years, Kremlin technocrats will have to present the people with a new candidate for the post of president and build his positive image. According to sources, there are now about 10 such people.

“There are different candidates being considered today. These are not ministers, but their deputies. There is also one unexpected candidate. She would be very good for our country,” the FederalPress source said.

Vladimir Putin, 8 months before the elections, still did not announce his participation in them. “There is no election campaign, normal work is going on. You see Vladimir Putin’s schedule, and you see that there are no such thoughts and such plans,” Dmitry Peskov said back in May.

But Vladimir Putin will someday leave the presidential post. And in any case, the Presidential Administration cannot avoid making fateful decisions.

Vladimir Putin will leave the presidential post early during his fourth presidential term, FederalPress sources in the Kremlin are confident. The presidential administration is preparing for such a development of events, and last year the highest echelons of power considered the candidacy of Dmitry Medvedev as Putin’s successor, but the corruption scandal initiated by Alexei Navalny mixed the cards for the political elite. After the presidential elections, the Kremlin technocrats will have to “promote” a new candidate as soon as possible. Details are in the FederalPress article.

Famous script

"I'm tired, I'm leaving." Residents of Russia remember very well the phrase that marked the end of Boris Yeltsin's presidency, but in a few years it may become relevant again. FederalPress sources in the Kremlin report that 2-3 years after winning the presidential elections in 2018, the Russian President will announce the early termination of his powers. This is one of the main scenarios being considered by the Presidential Administration.

« Putin goes to the polls and wins. Later, early elections are announced. Physically, he simply will not survive until the end of his next term. This is one of the most basic scenarios. The transition period is now beginning

The reason is age: although the Constitution of the Russian Federation does not contain such restrictions, if elected for a fourth term, Vladimir Putin will take the oath at 65 years old, and by the end of his term of office he will be 71. Few centenarians during the USSR period led the country at that age: Yuri Andropov and Nikita Khrushchev retired at 69 and 70 years old, respectively, Leonid Brezhnev at 75, Konstantin Chernenko at 73.

According to Abbas Gallyamov, in this case, it is better for Putin not to go to the elections at all, but to choose a successor now. " It’s not very clear why you should be elected now if you have plans to leave in two years. It’s better to choose a successor right now and let him be elected“- noted Gallyamov.

However, a number of experts believe that Putin’s early departure after winning the elections is possible. This point of view is shared by the political strategist Dmitry Fetisov. In his opinion, much will depend on the foreign policy situation. " This option is quite possible, but it cannot be said that it is possible for sure. Much will still depend on the foreign policy situation at the time of the decision.“Fetisov noted in an interview with a FederalPress correspondent.

The cards are mixed

FederalPress sources explain the possibility of such a scenario, citing not only Putin’s physical condition and fatigue. There is no clear idea in the Kremlin about a successor. “We must understand that Putin, having been in power for so many years, has assumed great personal responsibility for the country he leads. Therefore, in any case, Putin became a historical figure. The term “Putin’s Russia” is not without merit. At the same time, he also bears responsibility for the future successor. Based on this, he cannot just up and leave, even if he is tired. Responsibility will still weigh on him. He must choose a candidate who can lead a country like Russia,” Fetisov clarifies.

Although a year ago there was a clear idea of a successor, sources say. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was considered as a candidate for the presidency. This could be called political déjà vu, but the “castling” of the two top officials of the state would happen again, sources say. However, Medvedev’s next nomination was prevented by a corruption scandal initiated by Alexei Navalny. " If not for the FBK investigation, we could have seen President Medvedev again. Despite the fact that some of the elites are sharply against his candidacy, Putin trusts him very much", the source explained.

Alexei Navalny and FBK with their film, in a sense, did a service to the Kremlin. Although, with the next nomination of Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, a social explosion could have occurred even without the film “He’s Not Dimon to You,” political scientists believe. " Medvedev is not the best option. The problem is not even Navalny’s film. It’s just that society has already demonstrated once that it doesn’t like a situation where two people constantly change places. If we again present Medvedev to people as a successor, there may be a fire worse than at Bolotnaya“,” political scientist Abbas Gallyamov told FederalPress.

One can conclude that the Kremlin wants to buy time. The Kremlin technocrats are faced with the task in the coming years of presenting a new candidate to the population and building a positive image of him. Sources say there are currently about 10 such people. Among them are unexpected figures from the Cabinet of Ministers. " Various candidates are being considered. These are not even ministers, but deputy ministers. There is one unexpected candidate. It would be very good for the country. I can’t name the last name, I think you understand the reasons", - said the interlocutor of FederalPress.

8 months - or 241 days - before the elections on March 18, 2017, Vladimir Putin has not announced his readiness to take part in the elections. In his most recent commentary in May, Dmitry Peskov stated that there are no such plans: “There is no election campaign, normal work is being carried out. You see the president’s schedule, and, accordingly, there are no such thoughts, no such plans.”

The political elite understands perfectly well that Vladimir Putin will someday leave office. This means that the Presidential Administration still cannot avoid making fateful decisions.

In November-December 2017, V. Putin will announce his consent to the nomination for the post of President of the Russian Federation. for the fourth term. He will win the presidential elections in March 2018 without any special problems, there will be no second round, the remaining candidates will not have even the slightest chance to occupy the main Kremlin chair in the country, there are many reasons for this, but we will not go into them here and now.

When will Putin leave or maybe he will remain our king?

V. Putin will become our president for the fourth and last time and will leave voluntarily in 2024 due to the end of his presidential powers. The law prohibits him from running for office three times in a row; at the time of 2024, this will be his 3rd and 4th completed presidential term, that is, there will not be a fifth immediately.

Moreover, there will not be a fifth time at all, this is contrary to the constitution. Of course, the powers that be in this world have violated the law more than once, but not in this case, remember recent events; if this had been so, then there would have been no point in “castling” with D. Medvedev in 2008 either.

All the talk about the so-called tsar and the possibility of transferring lifelong powers to V. Putin is nothing more than an unsuccessful attempt to kiss his ass, in other words, sycophancy, servility and the like. V. Putin himself will not agree to this, for which I respect him, although I have never been his supporter, to be honest, even the opposite.

But in this case, this is a departure from democracy, and the destruction of everything that Vladimir Putin himself has been striving for all his life. A good president or ruler must not only save his country from collapse and achieve its prosperity, but also ensure the legal transfer of power. So that there is no unrest and harsh struggle for power, otherwise even such a strong country as Russia could be drowned in the blood of civil war.

Will there be a revolution before 2024?

No, there will definitely not be a revolution or civil war until 2024, and V. Putin himself will not get sick, will not die from illness, there will be no “successful” assassination attempt either, and his health, in general, given his years, will be excellent.

On the other hand, there won’t be any global changes for the better either, the poor will also become poorer, the rich will get richer, and prices will continue to rise, average salaries taken from the ceiling will grow to 45-50 thousand rubles, but realistic for most ordinary people will not reach even half of the declared wages by Rosstat. The West will not lift sanctions until 2024, the confrontation will continue.

Power in 2024 will pass to one of his successors, but it will definitely not be D. Medvedev; here it will be enough to recall the story with the pensioners of Crimea and his long-famous phrase: “there is no money,” and no one has forgotten about the betrayal of Libya.

Who will be president after Putin?

As for who will be V. Putin’s successor, the Higher Powers are still silent, but some political scientists call S. Shoigu a possible successor to Putin, and others point to S. Sobyanin. Well, we’ll wait and see, but be that as it may, if you are an ordinary person from an ordinary family, don’t rely on Putin or his successor, it won’t be better.

The government will be approximately the same as under V. Putin, the same course, the same people, the same power, nothing much will change for you personally. Better try to take your destiny into your own hands and what to do for yourself, for your loved ones and for your country.

So, to the question: when will Putin leave? the answer is quite simple: in 2024, there is no need to expect that he will leave before this date, get sick or die, or something like that, there will be no revolution, as I said, for this the opposition does not have a good and charismatic leader. There will be no conspiracy in his circle either, there is no point, since over time he himself will voluntarily transfer power.

Until 2024, nothing bad will definitely happen to Putin, he is reliably protected, but what kind of forces and from whom they come, whether it is God’s force or from the Devil himself, is a completely different story.